Local Shocks and Internal Migration: The Disparate Effects of Robots and Chinese Imports in the Us

Migration has long been considered one of the key mechanisms through which labor markets adjust to economic shocks. In this paper, we analyze migration response American workers two most important shocks that hit US manufacturing since late 1990s – Chinese import competition and introduction industrial robots. Exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in exposure across local over time, show robots caused a sizable reduction population size, while imports did not. We rationalize these results steps. First, provide evidence negative employment spillovers outside manufacturing, by but not imports, are an mechanism for different responses triggered Next, present model where geographically mobile compete with either machines or foreign completion tasks. The highlights dimensions along differ cost savings they degree complementarity between directly indirectly exposed industries can explain their disparate effects and, turn, differential response.